German Politics and Society

This article is an introduction to the Zeitenwende discussion regarding Chancellor Olaf Scholz's announcement of a turning point of German foreign policy in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. After explaining the concept, the text reviews the prior tradition of a “civilian power” and explores the military and economic dimensions of Berlin's “policy reversal.” The article then probes the conflicted “public responses” and discusses the “implementation problems” in order to assess the efficacy of the change of course. The evaluation concludes with some comments on the “future prospects” of Germany's role in what has turned into a lengthy war of attrition.

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin had hoped that Germany would stay militarily neutral, counting on Germany's politicians, who had previously expressed understanding for Russia's belligerent actions. Putin did not expect a tectonic change in Germany's foreign and defense policy initiated by the government of Olaf Scholz in response to his war on Ukraine (Zeitenwende). Meanwhile, the Kremlin borrows directly from Nazism in the theoretical justification of its actions, especially from two German scholars: Carl Schmitt and Karl Haushofer.

Since 2014 and especially after 2022, the German–Ukrainian relations have developed impressive depth. With over seven billion euros in military aid spent since 2022, another seven earmarked for 2024, and a long-term security agreement signed, Germany has become an indispensable and reliable partner for Ukraine. Given the dire situation on the battlefield and the prospect of a long and difficult war ahead, several factors impede the potential strategic relationship. If not addressed, those could prove a problem for the otherwise strong German support for and partnership with Ukraine. They include improper communication on the German side, especially from the chancellor who is not properly making the case to his electorate more broadly as to why Ukraine aid is in Germany's interest. While Germany has changed course and only after Russia openly invaded Ukraine, it has failed to critically examine its failed Russia policy and underinvested in addressing what scholars refer to as the country's “Ukraine-ignorance”. Additionally, the cautious and fear-driven logic of German decision-making and a lingering distrust of the Ukrainian side impede the provision of much-needed weaponry and influence the bilateral relationship.

After reviewing the pacifist tradition of German foreign policy, this article explores the shock of the Russian unleashing of a war on European soil. The article then proceeds to explain the various dimensions of German support for Ukraine, especially in increased military spending and energy uncoupling from Moscow. While conceding that German help often arrived slowly, the article nonetheless depicts the dramatic shift in German policy, which has ushered in a new period in defending democracy with military force.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point in European security policy. Defense concepts have been altered within Europe as well as in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Russia is no longer seen as a European partner, but a threat to security and stability in Europe. The article argues that the term Zeitenwende coined by the German chancellor is not a rhetorical figure; rather, it is reshaping Germany's approach to the East and upended German and European Ostpolitik. In fact, the new foreign policy direction sheds illusions of both the classic Ostpolitik of the Cold War and the new Ostpolitik of post-unification Germany by introducing a fundamentally different approach to Eastern and Central Eastern Europe and within NATO. The article explores the critical juncture created by the Zeitenwende of 2022 and its implications for European security policy.

This article argues that contemporary German environmental and energy policy has been shaped by the dominance of the Rechtsstaat—or “Legal State”—tradition. Although German authorities have articulated laudable climate goals and related hopes for greater energy independence—most recently in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's 2022 declaration of a Zeitenwende in German security and energy policy—the weakness of the developmental imperative, coupled with the power of interests central to the country's export-led growth model, have undermined the investments required for achieving these aims.

“Never again” has been a mantra of German foreign policy since the end of World War II. Together with Ostpolitik it informs its approach toward the conflict in Ukraine. The discourse moved from “never again war originating from German soil” via justifying military interventions to prevent ethnic cleansing in the Balkans in 1998 with Joshka Fischer's injunction of “never again Auschwitz” to Olaf Scholz’ programmatic 2023 speech invoking “never again war of aggression in Europe.” This development is interpreted in the light of Realpolitik, providing the hard security means to defend the rule of law and democratic governance. External shocks have led Germany to expand its soft security arsenal as a civilian power and to embrace military means for liberal ends.